- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.40-34.47 this morning supportive level at 34.35 resistance level at 34.55
· SET Index: 1,529.3 (+0.53%), 21 Jul 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,536.3 (+0.03%), 21 Jul 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.60 (+1.88 bps), 21 Jul 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.84 (-1.0 bps), 21 Jul 2023
- U.S. leading indicators point to recession starting soon
- UK consumers defy high inflation and shop more in June
- Japan's inflation may have peaked, no imminent change seen to BOJ policy
- Dollar snaps two-week losing streak, but some divided on next move
U.S. leading indicators point to recession starting soon An index designed to track turns in U.S. business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined by 0.7% in June to 106.1 following a revised decrease of 0.6% in May. The decline was slightly greater than the median expectation among economists in a Reuters poll for a 0.6% decrease. The Conference Board reiterated its forecast that the U.S. economy is likely to be in recession from the current third quarter to the first quarter of 2024.
UK consumers defy high inflation and shop more in June British retail sales grew faster than expected in June despite continued high inflation, thanks to unusually hot weather and a rebound in food sales after King Charles' coronation disrupted spending in May. While inflation at nearly 8% - the highest of any large economy - remains a challenge for many households, some economists say a fall in energy prices from July 1 will give consumers more disposable income. Sales volumes in June were 0.7% higher than in May, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, a bigger increase than the 0.2% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. Compared with a year earlier, sales were 1.0% lower, beating forecasts for a 1.5% decline
Japan's inflation may have peaked, no imminent change seen to BOJ policy Japan's core inflation stayed above the central bank's 2% target in June for the 15th straight month but an index stripping away the effect of energy costs slowed, data showed, suggesting the prolonged commodity-driven price pressures may have peaked. Yet, with services price growth also slowing last month, policymakers will feel that wage pressures have yet to build up enough to warrant an imminent tweak to the ultra-loose monetary stance. While the data heightens the chance the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will upgrade this year's inflation forecast next week, it may take pressure off the central bank to soon begin phasing out its massive monetary stimulus. The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food costs, rose 3.3% in June from a year earlier, matching a median market forecast and accelerating from a 3.2% gain in May.
Dollar snaps two-week losing streak, but some divided on next move The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.60, +1.88 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.59, +1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.84, -1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.30 Moving in a range of 34.40-34.47 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.20-34.70 today. The dollar snapped a two-week losing streak Friday ahead of the Federal Reserve's widely expected rate hike next week, but some are divided on whether the rebound has staying power. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.19% to 100.79, following a plunge to a more than one-year low last week. The Federal Reserve will kick off its two-day meeting on Tuesday, with many expecting the meeting to culminate in a 0.25% rate hike following a pause at the June meeting. The end of the Fed rate hike cycle, meanwhile, isn’t the dark stormy cloud for the greenback that many expect as it is unlikely to be accompanied by rapid rate cuts, which are priced in for early 2024.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
