- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.62-34.65 this morning supportive level at 34.40 resistance level at 34.75
· SET Index: 1,517.9 (+1.59%), 14 Jul 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,505.4 (-0.10%), 14 Jul 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.57 (-1.03 bps), 14 Jul 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.83 (-7.0 bps), 14 Jul 2023
- US inflation outlook brightening; consumer sentiment near two-year high
- China June new home prices flat in weakest showing this year
- Singapore dodges recession after slight growth in Q2
- Dollar gains after steep losses, but downtrend stays intact
US inflation outlook brightening; consumer sentiment near two-year high U.S. import prices fell for a second straight month in June as an increase in the cost of fuels was more than offset by declines elsewhere, the latest indication that inflationary pressures in the economy are abating. With the inflation environment improving considerably, Americans are growing more optimistic about the economic outlook. Consumer sentiment vaulted to the highest level in nearly two years in July. The disinflationary trend has raised cautious optimism that the economy could avoid a recession this year. Economists also believe an expected interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve later this month would be the last in the U.S. central bank's fastest monetary policy tightening cycle since the 1980s. The Fed, which has hiked its benchmark overnight interest rate by 500 basis points since March 2022, skipped a rate hike at its policy meeting last month.
China June new home prices flat in weakest showing this year China's new home prices were unchanged in June, the weakest result this year, increasing pressure on policymakers for more stimulus as the country's economic recovery falters. The flat result from a month earlier, with rises slowing nationwide, was below May's 0.1% gain, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. Prices were also unchanged from a year earlier, retreating from a 0.1% increase in May. The property sector, accounting for one-fourth of activity in the world's second-biggest economy, slumped sharply last year as developers defaulted on debts and suspended construction of presold housing projects. The central and local governments and regulators have announced a slew of policies over the past year to prop up the sector.
Singapore dodges recession after slight growth in Q2 Singapore's economy narrowly escaped a recession in the second quarter as global demand weakened and China's slowdown dragged on trade flows, leading some economists to cut their growth forecasts for the year. The Southeast Asian economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, following a 0.4% contraction in the first three months, preliminary government data showed on Friday. Four economists with quarterly estimates had forecast growth of 0.3% in a Reuters poll. China's reopening had fueled hopes for a sustained recovery in commerce and tourism for the region, especially Singapore's export-dependent economy, but demand has weakened in the wake of higher interest rates and strong inflationary pressures. On an annual basis, the economy expanded 0.7% in the second quarter, data from the Ministry of Trade and Industry showed.
Dollar gains after steep losses, but downtrend stays intact The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.57, -1.03 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.585, +1.50 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.83, +7.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.61 Moving in a range of 34.62-34.65 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.30-34.80 today. The U.S. dollar bounced on Friday after falling sharply the last few days, as investors consolidated losses ahead of the weekend, but its trajectory remained tilted to the downside with the Federal Reserve thought near the end of its rate hike cycle amid softening inflation. It was still on track for its biggest weekly decline since November against a basket of six major currencies. The weekly decline was exacerbated by June U.S. producer and consumer inflation data that showed easing price pressures. U.S. producer prices barely rose last month, and the annual increase was the smallest in nearly three years, a day after a report indicated that consumer prices gained modestly last month.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
