- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.51-34.70 this morning supportive level at 34.40 resistance level at 34.70
· SET Index: 1,491.1 (-0.39%), 12 Jul 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,472.2 (+0.74%), 12 Jul 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.58 (+0.12 bps), 12 Jul 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.86 (-13.0 bps), 12 Jul 2023
- U.S. inflation eases to 3.0% in June
- Japan households' inflation expectations rise, keep pressure on BOJ
- China's export slide to steepen in June, imports seen down
- US dollar stumbles, drops to more than one-year low as inflation eases in June
U.S. inflation eases to 3.0% in June Headline and core inflation in the U.S. rose at a slower-than-expected pace in June, potentially bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to wind down its monetary tightening cycle after a widely anticipated interest rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' closely watched consumer price index increased by 3.0% annually, down from 4.0% in May. Economists had forecast a rise of 3.1%. It was the lowest level in more than two years and represented a steep deceleration from the mark of 9.1% reached last June. On a month-on-month basis, the reading grew by 0.2%, up from 0.1% in the prior month. Estimates had called for 0.3%. Meanwhile, core CPI, which strips out more volatile items like food and energy, cooled to 4.8% yearly and 0.2% monthly.
Japan households' inflation expectations rise, keep pressure on BOJ Japanese households' inflation expectations rose in the three months to June, a central bank survey showed on Wednesday, adding to growing signs that conditions for phasing out massive monetary stimulus may be falling in place. The survey will be among factors the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will scrutinize in producing new inflation forecasts at its July 27-28 rate review, and in deciding whether to maintain its yield curve control policy that sets a 0% cap on long-term yields. The ratio of Japanese households expecting prices to rise a year from now stood at 86.3% in June, up from 85.7% in March to hit the highest level since June 2022, the BOJ survey showed. Households expect inflation to average 10.5% a year from now, the June survey showed, down from 11.1% in the previous survey but well above the BOJ's 2% target.
China's export slide to steepen in June, imports seen down China's export slump is expected to have accelerated in June, as sluggish overseas economies struggling with inflation and rising interest rates buy up fewer goods from Chinese factories. Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy were projected to have fallen 9.5% year-on-year, following a drop of 7.5% in May, according to the median forecast of 30 economists in the poll finalized on Wednesday. That would be the worst decline since January, when China's supply chains were grappling with a wave of COVID-19 infections unleashed by the end of harsh pandemic-related restrictions. Chinese factory activity has been shrinking in recent months and policymakers are now reckoning with the prospect of prolonged slower growth in the world's second-largest economy around just 3% annually, according to economists' forecasts.
US dollar stumbles, drops to more than one-year low as inflation eases in June The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.58, +0.12 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.58, +0.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.86, -13.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.78 Moving in a range of 34.51-34.70 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.20-34.70 today. The dollar crashed to its lowest in more than a year on Wednesday after data showed the rise in U.S. consumer prices moderated in June, suggesting the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates only one more time this year. The dollar index dropped to as low as 100.54, the lowest since April 2022, and was last down 1% at 100.55, on track for its largest daily percentage loss since early February. The greenback also hit its lowest against the Swiss franc since early 2015 after the inflation report. It was last down 1.3% at 0.8675 francs, having fallen to a session low of 0.8660 earlier, its weakest since the Swiss National Bank removed the peg from the Swiss currency in January 2015.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
