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Daily Market Insight: 23 June 2023

23 มิ.ย. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 35.112-35.20 this morning supportive level at 35.00 resistance level at 35.25

·         SET Index: 1,509.3 (-0.85%), 22 Jun 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,381.9 (+0.37%), 22 Jun 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.59 (-1.93 bps), 22 Jun 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.80 (+8.0 bps), 22 Jun 2023

 

  • US jobless claims hold at 20-month high, existing home sales tick up in May
  • Bank of England hikes rates to 5% in surprise move to tackle stubborn inflation
  • Japan’s inflation stays above BOJ target, key gauge hits 42-year high
  • Dollar up on risk aversion; sterling, Swiss franc slip despite rate hikes

 

US jobless claims hold at 20-month high, existing home sales tick up in May The number of people filing for state unemployment benefits for the first time held steady at a 20-month high last week, remaining elevated for a third straight week in what may be an early indication of a softening labor market in the face of the Federal Reserve's aggressive credit tightening. The housing market, meanwhile, showed further signs of stabilizing last month after standing out last year as the sector most visibly upended by the Fed's rate hikes. However, selling prices for existing homes tumbled from a year earlier by the most in more than a decade, a demonstration of the choppy nature of the recovery underway. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed 264,000 new claims were filed for jobless benefits on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ended June 17, unchanged from the prior week's upwardly revised level, which is the highest level of initial claims activity since October 2021.

 

Bank of England hikes rates to 5% in surprise move to tackle stubborn inflation The Bank of England surprised many investors by raising interest rates half a percentage point on Thursday, saying there had been "significant" news suggesting Britain's persistently high inflation would take even longer to fall. The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 to raise its main interest rate from 4.5% to 5%, the highest since 2008 and its largest increase since February, following stickier inflation and wage growth since policymakers last met in May. "The economy is doing better than expected but inflation is still too high, and we've got to deal with it," said Governor Andrew Bailey, who has been criticized for not acting decisively enough. "If we don't raise rates now, it could be worse later.“

 

Japan’s inflation stays above BOJ target, key gauge hits 42-year high Japan’s core consumer inflation exceeded forecasts in May and an index excluding fuel costs rose at the fastest annual pace in 42 years, highlighting broadening price pressure that will keep the central bank under pressure to phase out its massive stimulus. The increase was driven by steady price hikes for food and daily necessities, suggesting a drag on consumption from the rising cost of living facing households, analysts say. The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food but includes energy items, rose 3.2% in May from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, slowing from 3.4% in April but exceeding market forecasts for a 3.1% gain. Core consumer inflation has now stayed above the central bank’s 2% target for 14 straight months, casting doubt on its view the recent cost-driven inflation will prove temporary.

 

Dollar up on risk aversion; sterling, Swiss franc slip despite rate hikes The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.59, -1.93 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.605, -0.50 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.80, +8.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.92 Moving in a range of 35.112-35.20 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.80-35.30 today. The U.S. dollar advanced against a basket of currencies on Thursday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell backed more U.S. rate increases albeit at a "careful pace" and as a spate of interest rate hikes by several central banks fueled concerns over the outlook for global growth. Sterling was volatile, the Swiss franc fell, and the Norwegian crown rose on Thursday after the Bank of England (BoE), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Norges Bank all hiked their benchmark interest rates. The slew of rate hikes come a day after Powell told lawmakers on Capitol Hill further rate increases were "a pretty good guess" of where the central bank was heading if the economy continued in its current direction.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC