- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.80-34.82 this morning supportive level at 34.75 resistance level at 34.90
· SET Index: 1,522.1 (-1.01%), 21 Jun 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,365.7 (-0.53%), 21 Jun 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.61 (-0.74 bps), 21 Jun 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.72 (-2.0 bps), 21 Jun 2023
- UK's stubborn inflation fails to fall, turning up heat on BoE
- German recession will be sharper than expected
- Japan big manufacturers' sentiment positive for 3rd consecutive month
- Dollar dips as Powell testimony disappoints hawks
UK's stubborn inflation fails to fall, turning up heat on BoE British inflation defied predictions of a slowdown and held at 8.7% in May, putting yet more pressure on the Bank of England a day before it is expected to raise interest rates for the 13th time in a row. Markets increased bets on further rate rises following Wednesday's official figures, which also showed underlying inflation hit its highest since 1992 last month. The headline figure means British inflation is once again the fastest of any major advanced economy. The numbers are uncomfortable for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak - who has pledged to halve inflation this year before a probable 2024 election - and are likely to add to the rise in mortgage costs for millions of homeowners. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the annual consumer price inflation rate would drop to 8.4% in May, moving further away from October's 41-year high of 11.1%.
German recession will be sharper than expected The German economy will contract more than previously expected this year as sticky inflation takes its toll on private consumption, the Ifo Institute said on Wednesday while presenting its forecasts. “The German economy is only very slowly working its way out of the recession,” Ifo’s head of economic forecasts, Timo Wollmershaeuser, said. German gross domestic product is expected to fall by 0.4% this year, more than the 0.1% forecast by the Ifo Institute in March. The economic institute has also cut the forecasts for Germany in 2024 to 1.5% GDP growth, down from the 1.7% it previously expected. Inflation is forecast to ease slowly from 6.9% in 2022 to 5.8% this year, down to 2.1% in 2024. Regarding core inflation, the Ifo Institute forecasts it will increase to 6% this year from 4.9% in the previous year, before falling to 3% in 2024.
Japan big manufacturers' sentiment positive for 3rd consecutive month Business morale at big Japanese manufacturers edged up in June, staying in positive territory for a second straight month and reflecting a post-COVID economic recovery though uncertainty remains high amid slowing global growth, a Reuters poll showed. Underlining the prospects for a service sector-led recovery, the non-manufacturers' index hovered near this year's high, the Reuters Tankan poll showed on Wednesday, bolstering the view that strong domestic demand may offset an export slowdown - a rare thing that would happen to export-reliant Japanese economy. The monthly poll suggested there would be a steady recovery in business sentiment in the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) closely watched tankan quarterly survey due next on July 3.
Dollar dips as Powell testimony disappoints hawks The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.61, -0.74 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.615, -1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.72, -2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.85 Moving in a range of 34.80-34.82 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50-35.00 today. The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the central bank's ongoing fight to lower inflation failed to live up to the more hawkish market expectations. Powell told lawmakers the fight against inflation still "has a long way to go" and that despite a recent pause in interest rate hikes officials agreed borrowing costs would likely need to move higher. While noting that inflation remains very far from the Fed's target, Powell said it may make sense to still raise rates, at a more moderate pace. The Fed had left interest rates unchanged at its June meeting but signaled in new projections that borrowing costs may still need to rise as much as half of a percentage point by the end of this year.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
