- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.69-34.72 this morning supportive level at 34.60 resistance level at 34.80
· SET Index: 1,559.4 (+0.11%), 16 Jun 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,409.6 (-0.37%), 16 Jun 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.63 (+0.26 bps), 16 Jun 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.77 (+5.00 bps), 16 Jun 2023
- US consumers' near-term inflation expectations hit two-year low; sentiment rises
- BOJ keeps low rates and dovish guidance, markets not so sure
- Goldman Sachs cuts China GDP forecast for 2023
- Dollar rebounds from one-month low; yen under pressure after BOJ meeting
US consumers' near-term inflation expectations hit two-year low; sentiment rises U.S. consumers' near-term inflation expectations dropped to more than a two-year low in June and the outlook over the next five years improved slightly, according to a survey on Friday that also showed sentiment perking up. The University of Michigan's survey followed data this week showing annual consumer and producer prices retreating sharply in May, largely thanks to declining energy costs. The survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.3% this month, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.2% in May. Its five-year inflation outlook dipped to 3.0% from 3.1% in May, staying within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 22 of the last 23 months. With inflation subsiding, though still above the Fed's 2% target, financial markets are betting that the central bank will raise interest rates only one more time this year.
BOJ keeps low rates and dovish guidance, markets not so sure The Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy on Friday despite stronger-than-expected inflation, signaling it will remain a dovish outlier among global central banks and focus on supporting a fragile economic recovery. The central bank also reiterated its view that inflation will slow later this year and a pledge to “patiently” sustain stimulus, suggesting its desire to wait until there is clarity on whether more demand-driven, durable price rise will take hold. “We expect trend inflation to heighten as economic activity strengthens and the labor market tightens. But there’s very high uncertainty on next year’s wage negotiations and the sustainability of wage growth,” Governor Kazuo Ueda told a briefing.
Goldman Sachs cuts China GDP forecast for 2023 Goldman Sachs slashed its economic growth forecasts for China on Sunday, stating that current levels of stimulus from the government will provide less support for the economy than previously thought. The investment bank cut its forecast for 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) to 5.4% from 6%, joining a growing list of major banks that have cut their bets on a Chinese economic recovery this year. The bank said in a note released on Sunday that the country’s ongoing stimulus was incapable of generating a strong “growth impulse," and would result in a slower recovery despite the lifting of anti-COVID measures earlier this year. Goldman Sachs also slashed its outlook for second quarter GDP to quarter-on-quarter growth of 1% from 4.9% but forecast an improvement in the second half of the year on potentially more stimulus measures.
Dollar rebounds from one-month low; yen under pressure after BOJ meeting The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.63, +0.26 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.63, +1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.77, +5.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.66 Moving in a range of 34.69-34.72 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50-35.00 today. The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Friday, rebounding after hefty overnight losses following weak economic data, while the Japanese yen weakened as the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates at very low levels. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 101.787, after sliding around 0.8% overnight to a new one-month low. The dollar received a boost earlier in the week when the U.S. Federal Reserve forecast at least two more hikes this year, despite pausing its series of rate hikes, as inflation continued to trend above the central bank’s target range.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
