- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.10-34.15 this morning supportive level at 34.00 resistance level at 34.25
· SET Index: 1,544.0 (+0.24%), 26 April 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,056.0 (-0.38%), 26 April 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.50 (+2.67 bps), 26 April 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.43 (+3.00 bps), 26 April 2023
- U.S. goods trade deficit narrows sharply in March; retail inventories rise
- Germany expects deficit of 4.25%/GDP in 2023
- Thai March export fall less than expected, value at a year high
- Oil drifts higher after wiping out all OPEC-driven gains
U.S. goods trade deficit narrows sharply in March; retail inventories rise The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed sharply in March as exports surged and imports declined, which augurs well for economic growth in the first quarter. The goods trade deficit contracted 8.1% last month to $84.6 billion. Exports of goods increased $4.9 billion to $172.7 billion. They were boosted by industrial supplies, which include crude oil, motor vehicles as well as consumer goods. Food exports fell 4.5%. Goods imports fell $2.5 billion to $257.3 billion, pulled down by decreases in industrial supplies, capital goods and other goods. Imports of consumer goods rose 2.4%. The Commerce Department also reported that wholesale inventories edged up 0.1% in March after a similar gain in February. Retail inventories increased 0.7% after rising 0.3% in the prior month.
Germany expects deficit of 4.25%/GDP in 2023 Germany expects to post a deficit of 4.25% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, up from a 2.6% deficit the previous year, according to finance ministry calculations published on Wednesday. Overall, the deficit is projected to be gradually reduced to about 0.75% of GDP by 2026. These estimates assume a complete outflow of the funds earmarked for the government’s response to the energy crisis. However, it is already becoming apparent that fewer funds will be needed due to falling energy prices, the ministry said. Without the energy crisis funds, the general government deficit in 2023 would be about 1.25% instead of 4.25%. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase to about 67.75% in 2023 from 66.3% in 2022, according to the ministry’s projections. From 2024, the debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to decline steadily to around 65.5% in 2026.
Thai March export fall less than expected, value at a year high Thailand's customs-based exports contracted less than expected in March as some key shipments improved, and the commerce ministry said on Wednesday it was expecting some export growth for the full year. Exports, a key driver of growth, dropped 4.2% in March from a year earlier, far better than the forecast for a year-on-year drop of 14% for March in a Reuters poll. March's export value of $27.65 billion was the highest in a year. The ministry is maintaining its target of 1%-2% export growth this year. Thailand posted a trade surplus for the first time in a year of $2.72 billion in March, versus a forecast deficit of $1.07 billion, as imports showed a year-on-year 7.1% drop. Exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products rose 4.2% in March from a year earlier, while shipments of passenger cars rose 8.7% but hard disk drives dropped 13.8%.
Oil drifts higher after wiping out all OPEC-driven gains The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.50, +2.67 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.49, +3.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.20-2.70 Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.43, +3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.27 Moving in a range of 34.10-34.15 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.00-34.50 today. Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday but were nursing sharp losses for the week as fears of slowing economic growth largely offset signs of tightening U.S. supplies, with focus now turning to key economic data due later in the day. Steep losses over the past two sessions saw oil prices erase all gains made on the back of a surprise production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC). Prices were now trading close to a one-month low and were below the $80 a barrel level that was targeted by the OPEC. Strong oil exports from OPEC+ member Russia also saw markets question the true depth of the production cut.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
