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Daily Market Insight: 20 April 2023

20 เม.ย. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.30-34.50 this morning

·         SET Index: 1,580.7 (-0.83%), 19 April 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,154.5 (-0.01%), 19 April 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.54 (+1.28 bps), 19 April 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.60 (+2.00 bps), 19 April 2023

 

  • Core euro zone inflation edges up in March, keeping ECB on alert
  • UK records western Europe's highest inflation as March fall disappoints
  • Japan March export growth slows, annual trade deficit widens to record
  • Oil extends losses on fears of rising rates, slowing economic growth

 

Core euro zone inflation edges up in March, keeping ECB on alert Euro zone inflation eased last month but underlying readings remained stubbornly high, confirming preliminary data that raised worries at the European Central Bank about the persistence of price pressures. Consumer inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro eased to 6.9% from 8.5%, primarily on a rapid fall in energy costs as natural gas prices keep declining after their surge a year ago on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But ECB policymakers are now getting worried that high energy costs have seeped into the broader economy and linger in everything from services to wages, making inflation more difficult to tame. Indeed, excluding unprocessed food and fuel, prices accelerated to 7.5% from 7.4% while an even narrower inflation measure that also strips out alcohol and tobacco picked up to 5.7% from 5.6%, in line with preliminary data.

 

UK records western Europe's highest inflation as March fall disappoints Britain was the only country in western Europe with double-digit inflation in March after it fell less than expected, bolstering bets that the Bank of England will raise interest rates again in May. Consumer price inflation (CPI) dropped to an annual rate of 10.1%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, down from 10.4% in February but well above the 9.8% forecast by economists polled by Reuters and the 9.2% predicted by the BoE in February. Inflation, which hit a 41-year high of 11.1% in October, continued to eat into the spending power of workers whose pay is rising by less. Prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks were 19.1% higher in March than a year earlier - the biggest such increase since August 1977 - which the ONS said reflected higher costs for biscuits and cakes, and to a lesser extent chocolate and fruit. Milk and sugar cost around 40% more than a year ago.

 

Japan March export growth slows, annual trade deficit widens to record Japan’s export growth slowed in March, according to Ministry of Finance data, dragged down by a drop in China-bound shipments of cars and steel in a slide that underscores concern about slowing global demand amid Western banking-sector jitters. Import growth outpaced exports in March, due to the hefty cost of coal, crude and oil products, helping bring the annual trade deficit in the world’s third-biggest economy to a record 21.7 trillion yen ($161 billion). The yen’s depreciation by 16.5% from the same month a year earlier also boosted the value of imports, rather than driving up external shipments as Japanese exporters have shifted production overseas during previous periods of yen strength. Thursday’s data showed exports rose 4.3% in March from a year earlier, logging a 25th straight month of increase, led by shipments of U.S.-bound cars.

 

Oil extends losses on fears of rising rates, slowing economic growth The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.54, +1.28 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.53, +2.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.20-2.70 Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.60, +2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.40 Moving in a range of 34.30-34.50 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.20-34.70 today. Oil prices fell further in early Asian trade on Thursday, as markets reassessed their outlook for demand this year amid signs of cooling economic growth and growing bets on more rate hikes from major central banks. Strength in the dollar also weighed on crude prices, as the greenback firmed following a slew of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. The Fed’s Beige Book report, released on Wednesday, showed that economic growth eased in recent weeks, while U.S. inflation continued to run relatively high, which could attract more monetary tightening.  Brent oil futures fell 0.3% to $82.69 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.6% to $78.80 a barrel. Both contracts plummeted more than 2% on Wednesday, with U.S. crude prices losing the key $80 a barrel level.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC