- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.28-34.38 this morning, supportive level at 34.20 resistance level at 34.40
· SET Index: 1,609.2 (+0.23%), 31 March 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,109.3 (+1.43%), 31 March 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.40 (+4.50 bps), 31 March 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.48 (-7.00 bps), 30 March 2023
- US consumer spending slows, but seen boosting first-quarter GDP growth
- Japan factory activity shrinks at slowest pace in five months
- Chinese factory growth slows in March as post-COVID boom fades
- Oil jumps $5/bbl as surprise OPEC+ output cuts jolt markets
US consumer spending slows, but seen boosting first-quarter GDP growth U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in February, and while inflation cooled, it remained high enough to possibly allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates one more time this year. The slowdown in consumer spending reported by the Commerce Department on Friday followed the largest increase in nearly two years in January. That, together with February's small gain put consumer spending on track to surge this quarter after growing at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years in the fourth quarter. Economists boosted their economic growth estimates for the first quarter to as high as a 3.25% annualized rate. Stronger growth this quarter is expected to help to ease worries of a credit crunch, triggered by the recent collapse of two regional banks, and keep the Fed focused on taming high inflation.
Japan factory activity shrinks at slowest pace in five months Japan’s factory activity shrank at the softest pace in five months in March due to an expansion of inventories, but still-weak global and domestic demand conditions meant the post-COVID economic recovery will take a while to solidify. The final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index released on Monday rose to 49.2 in March from February’s 47.7, marking the slowest contraction since November 2022. It was also higher than the flash reading of 48.6. Manufacturing output and new orders contracted for a ninth consecutive month, the survey showed, as customer and market demand remained weak. This was in contrast to the official manufacturing data released on Friday, which saw Japan’s factory output rise 4.5% in February.
Chinese factory growth slows in March as post-COVID boom fades Growth in China’s manufacturing sector slowed in March, a private survey showed on Monday, as production remained subdued amid weak international demand and as a post-COVID economic boom appeared to be running out of steam. The Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) grew 50 in March, barely remaining in expansion territory and retreating from an eight-month high of 51.6 hit in the prior month. The reading also missed expectations for growth of 51.7. Monday’s data comes in line with government data from last week that showed that growth in China’s manufacturing sector was slowing after an initial post-COVID bounce. While the sector stabilized after the withdrawal of anti-COVID measures, it is still facing increased headwinds from sluggish order growth and weak overseas demand.
Oil jumps $5/bbl as surprise OPEC+ output cuts jolt markets The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.40, +4.50 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.38, +5.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.00-2.50 Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.48, -7.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.10 Moving in a range of 34.28-34.38 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.00-34.50 today. Oil prices jumped about $5 a barrel on Monday's open, jolted by a surprise announcement by OPEC+ to cut production further in an effort to support market stability. Brent crude hit the highest in nearly a month at the open, trading at $84.95 a barrel, up $5.06, or 6.3%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude touched its highest since late January and was at $80.47 a barrel, up $4.80, or 6.3%. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia, shook markets by announcing production cuts of about 1.16 million barrels per day on Sunday. The group known as OPEC+ had been expected to maintain its earlier decision to cut output by 2 million bpd until December at its monthly meeting on Monday. The pledges bring the total volume of cuts by OPEC+ to 3.66 million bpd according to Reuters calculations, equal to 3.7% of global demand.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
