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Daily Market Insight: 21 November 2022

21 พ.ย. 2565
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 35.89-36.00 this morning, supportive level at 35.85 resistance level at 36.15

·         SET Index: 1,617.0 (+0.15%), 18 Nov 2022

·         S&P 500 Index: 3,965.3 (+0.47%), 18 Nov 2022

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.76 (+2.81 bps), 18 Nov 2022

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.82 (+5.0 bps), 18 Nov 2022

 

  • US existing home sales plunge; tight inventory keeps prices rising
  • UK retail sales recover only partially as outlook darkens
  • Japan’s inflation hits 40-year high as BOJ sticks to easy policy
  • Oil falls on worries of US rate hikes, China demand outlook

 

US existing home sales plunge; tight inventory keeps prices rising US existing home sales tumbled for a record ninth straight month in October as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit a 20-year high and prices remained elevated, pushing homeownership out of the reach of many Americans. Despite the broad decline in sales reported by the National Association of Realtors on Friday, housing supply remained tight, with considerably fewer homes coming on the market than in the prior year. The housing market has been the sector hardest hit by aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that are aimed at quelling high inflation by dampening demand in the economy. Existing home sales dropped 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million units last month. Outside the plunge during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020, this was the lowest level since December 2011.

 

UK retail sales recover only partially as outlook darkens British retail sales staged only a partial rebound last month after shops closed in September for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth, and they remained below their pre-pandemic level as soaring inflation hits spending power. Retail sales volumes rose in October by 0.6% month-on-month, following a 1.5% drop in September. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a 0.3% rise from September when Britain held a one-off public holiday to mark the funeral of the queen which was observed by many businesses including retailers. The ONS said retail sales volumes remained 0.6% lower than their pre-pandemic level, a reminder of the economic challenge facing finance minister Jeremy Hunt who on Thursday said Britain was in a recession.

 

Japan’s inflation hits 40-year high as BOJ sticks to easy policy Japan’s core consumer inflation accelerated to a 40-year high in October, driven by currency weakness and imported cost pressures that the central bank shrugs off as it sticks to a policy of ultra-low interest rates. The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI) was up 3.6% on a year earlier, exceeding the 3.5% rise expected by economists and the 3.0% gain seen in September. It was the largest jump since February 1982, when a Middle East crisis stemming from the Iran-Iraq war disrupted crude oil supply and triggered a spike in energy prices. The rise in the index, which excludes volatile fresh food prices but includes oil products, confirmed that inflation remained above the 2% goal of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for a seventh consecutive month.

 

Oil falls on worries of US rate hikes, China demand outlook The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.76, +2.81 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.705, +9.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.65-3.00. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.82, +5.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.84 Moving in a range of 35.89-36.00 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.70-36.20 today. Oil prices hovered near two-month lows on Monday as supply fears receded while concerns over China's fuel demand and rising interest rates weighed on prices. Brent crude futures for January had slipped 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $87.34 a barrel after settling at their lowest since Sept. 27. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for December were at $80 a barrel, down 8 cents, ahead of the contract's expiry later on Monday. The more active January contract fell 21 cents to $79.90 a barrel. Both benchmarks closed Friday at their lowest since Sept. 27, extending losses for a second week, with Brent down 9% and WTI 10% lower.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC