- USDTHB: moving in the range 37.40-37.49 this morning, supportive level at 37.35 resistance level at 37.55
· SET Index: 1,626.3 (+0.04%), 4 Nov 2022
· S&P 500 Index: 3,770.6 (+1.35%), 4 Nov 2022
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.18 (-0.49 bps), 4 Nov 2022
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.17 (+3.0 bps), 4 Nov 2022
- US job growth strong in October, but cracks emerging
- Euro zone downturn deepens, points to winter recession
- UK long-run inflation expectations drop to 4.2%
- Dollar drops as U.S. nonfarm payrolls show mixed results
US job growth strong in October, but cracks emerging US job growth increased more than expected in October, but the pace is slowing, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, suggesting some loosening in labor market conditions, which would allow the Federal Reserve to shift towards smaller interest rates increases starting in December. The survey of establishments showed nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 last month, the smallest gain since December 2020. Data for September was revised higher to show 315,000 jobs added instead of 263,000 as previously reported. Employment growth has averaged 407,000 per month this year compared with 562,000 in 2021. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 jobs, with estimates ranging from 120,000 to 300,000.
Euro zone downturn deepens, points to winter recession The downturn in the euro zone economy has deepened as high inflation and fears of an intensifying energy crisis hit demand, adding to evidence the bloc is heading for a winter recession. A closely-watched survey showed euro zone October business activity contracted at the fastest pace since late 2020. German industrial orders also slumped more than expected in September as foreign demand sank, putting Europe's largest economy on course for recession. S&P Global's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the euro zone, seen as a good guide to economic health, fell to a 23-month low of 47.3 in October fromSeptember's 48.1, albeit just above a preliminary 47.1 estimate.
UK long-run inflation expectations drop to 4.2% The British public’s expectations for inflation over the next five to 10 years dropped to 4.2% in October from 4.3% in September, a monthly survey by Citi and YouGov showed on Friday. Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months held steady at 6.2% on the longest-running Citi/YouGov measure, while a new measure of year-ahead expectations, that allows for higher inflation, came in at 8.7%, down from a high of 10.3% in August
Dollar drops as U.S. nonfarm payrolls show mixed results The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.18, -0.49 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.08, -5.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 3.00-3.15. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.17, +3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 37.68 Moving in a range of 37.40-37.48 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 37.30-37.80 today. The dollar tumbled on Friday after the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for October showed the world's largest economy created more new jobs than expected, but also flashed signs of a slowdown with a higher unemployment rate and lower wage inflation. The fed funds futures on Friday priced in a 52.5% chance of a 75-basis-point interest rate hike next month, and a 47.5% probability of a 50-basis-point increase. The odds of a 75-basis-point rise went as high as 64% immediately after the payrolls data. The Fed's terminal rate, or the level at which rates would peak, slipped to 5.09% late on Friday, from about 5.2% just before the data.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
