- USDTHB: moving in the range 37.97-38.10 this morning, supportive level at 37.80 resistance level at 38.20
· SET Index: 1,590.4 (+1.20), 18 Oct 2022
· S&P 500 Index: 3,720.0 (+1.14%), 18 Oct 2022
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.24 (-0.72 bps), 18 Oct 2022
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.01 (-1.00 bps), 18 Oct 2022
- US factory output rose more than expected in September
- BoE to start selling bonds on Nov. 1, but not longer-dated gilts
- Bank of Japan likely to raise inflation forecast to over 2.5%
- Japan authorities keep up warning against sharp yen decline
US factory output rose more than expected in September US factory output rose more than expected in September, as the supply chain bottlenecks that dogged the industry earlier in the year continued to ease. Industrial output rose 0.4% from August and was up 5.3% on the year, the Federal Reserve said, while manufacturing output also rose 0.4%. August's manufacturing number was also revised upward to show a 0.4% gain, rather than the 0.1% initially reported. The numbers are a fresh illustration that most of the U.S. economy is running hot by any historical measure. The rate of capacity utilization across the country's factories rose to 80.3% from 80.1%, matching a 13-year high that it hit earlier in the year. The Fed said that output of construction supplies rose the most of any sector, gaining 1.1% on the month, while output of consumer goods grew a more sedate 0.6%.
BoE to start selling bonds on Nov. 1, but not longer-dated gilts The Bank of England said it would start selling some of its huge stock of British government bonds from Nov. 1 but would not sell this year any longer-duration gilts that have been in the eye of a recent storm in the British government bond market. The BoE said it was delaying its start date for the launch of its so-called quantitative tightening program by a day from its previous schedule to avoid clashing with a government fiscal statement on Oct. 31. The central bank wants to reduce its 838 billion pounds ($948 billion) of government bonds acquired over more than a decade of crisis-fighting, from the global financial crisis to the coronavirus pandemic and its aftermath. The BoE said sales in 2022 would be in short- and medium-maturity sectors, not bonds of more than 20 years. They suffered the biggest sell-offs in the recent market upheaval caused by the government’s now-abandoned tax-cutting mini-budget.
Bank of Japan likely to raise inflation forecast to over 2.5% The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise its inflation forecast for this fiscal year to above 2.5% at its next policy meeting as a weakening yen and higher raw material costs drive up prices. While the upgrade will bring inflation more firmly above the central bank's 2% target, the policy board of the BOJ was likely to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in place to support Japan's economy. In quarterly projections due to be released at the conclusion of the Oct. 27-28 policy-setting meeting, the BOJ would likely increase its core consumer inflation forecast for the fiscal year through March 2023 to above 2.5% from the current estimate of a 2.3% rise.
Japan authorities keep up warning against sharp yen decline The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.24, -0.72 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.205, -0.5 bps. LB31DA could be between 3.10-3.40. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.01, -1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 38.08 Moving in a range of 37.97-38.10 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 38.10-38.30 today. Japanese authorities repeated their warnings about the yen's precipitous fall against the dollar on Wednesday, with Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki saying he was "meticulously" checking currency rates with more frequency, local media reported. Speaking to reporters at the finance ministry, Suzuki said the government would "properly respond" in the foreign exchange market based on existing policy.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
