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Daily Market Insight: 26 September 2022

26 ก.ย. 2565
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 37.64-37.76 this morning, supportive level at 37.40 resistance level at 37.80

·         SET Index: 1,631.7 (-0.83%), 23 Sep 2022

·         S&P 500 Index: 3,693.2 (-1.74%), 23 Sep 2022

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.11 (+7.71 bps), 23 Sep 2022

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.69 (-1.00 bps), 23 Sep 2022

 

  • US business activity gauge improves, but still shows contraction
  • UK cuts taxes as flagging economy falls into recession
  • Japan's factory activity expands at slowest pace in 20 months
  • Oil prices hover near 8-month low as recession fears dent outlook

 

US business activity gauge improves, but still shows contraction US business activity contracted in September for a third-straight month, though at a more moderate pace as a pickup in orders and a further softening of inflation allayed concerns of a more-pronounced pullback. The S&P Global flash composite purchasing managers output index increased 4.7 points to a three-month high of 49.3. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The composite measure of orders at service providers and manufacturers rose to a four-month high. The improvement in bookings suggests demand is holding up yet remains tenuous as customers of service providers adjust to still-elevated prices and higher interest rates.

 

UK cuts taxes as flagging economy falls into recession The new U.K. Government unveiled a suite of measures to cut taxes and stimulate growth as fresh data showed the economy sliding into recession at the end of the third quarter. Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng stood up to announce a 45 billion-pound $50 billion) package of tax cuts only minutes after a closely watched survey showed both services and manufacturing activity contracting in September. As widely expected, Kwarteng confirmed that the government will cancel a planned increase in corporate income tax from 19% to 25%, that was due to take effect next year, as well as ending an EU-inspired cap on bankers’ bonuses and a reduction in the stamp duty payable on home purchases. In addition, he announced a cut in the top rate of personal income tax to 40% from April, as well as pre-announcing a cut in the basic rate of income tax to 19%.

 

Japan's factory activity expands at slowest pace in 20 months Japan's factory activity growth hit a 20-month low in September, as firms struggled with a global slowdown and pressure from high energy and raw material prices that was exacerbated by a weak yen. The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped to a seasonally adjusted 51.0 in September from the prior month's final of 51.5. The headline figure marked the slowest expansion since January 2021, although it stayed above the 50-mark that separates contraction from expansion. It was pulled down by struggling output and overall new orders, both of which contracted for the third consecutive month. New orders shrank at the fastest rate in two years.

 

Oil prices hover near 8-month low as recession fears dent outlook The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.11, +7.71 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.86, +9.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.85-2.93. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.69, -1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 37.34 Moving in a range of 37.64-37.76 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 37.78-37.84 today. Oil prices held near eight-month lows on Monday after falling sharply last week, as markets feared that slowing global economic activity will dent demand for crude. London-traded Brent oil futures rose 0.3% to $85.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were unchanged at $78.67 a barrel by 21:30 ET (01:30 GMT). Both contracts were trading just above their weakest level in eight months and were nursing steep losses from last week.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC