• USDTHB: moving in the range 35.44-35.57 this morning, supporting level of USDTHB is around 35.45 resistance level is around 35.55
• SET Index: 1,625.3 (+0.18%), 15 Aug 2022
• S&P 500 Index: 4,297.1 (+0.40%), 15 Aug 2022
• Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.44 (+1.00 bps), 15 Aug 2022
• US 10-year treasury yield: 2.79 (-5.00 bps), 15 Aug 2022
• China's industrial production below expectations in July
• China's retail sales on first 7-month dropped
• OPEC sees lower 2022 oil demand growth
• Dollar jumps on safety flow; yuan slips on rate cut
China's industrial production below expectations in July
China's industrial production grew by 3.8%YoY in July 2022, below market consensus of 4.6% and after a 3.9%YoY rise in June. It was the third straight month of growth in industrial output, amid signs of a fragile economic recovery due to COVID-19 restrictions. Production grew softer for both manufacturing and mining, despite a sharp pickup in utility output. Among manufacturing, production advanced further for chemical raw materials and chemical products, communication, automobile, and electricity and heat production and supply industries. In contrast, there were declines in production of food processing industry, textiles, and general equipment. For the first seven months of the year, industrial output expanded by 3.5%YoY from the same period of 2021.
China's retail sales on first 7-month dropped
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that China's retail trade rose by 2.7%YoY in July, missing market estimates of 5% and showing a slowdown after a 3.1%YoY growth a month earlier. While marking the second straight month of increase in retail sales, the latest print highlighted a shaky recovery of the Chinese economy as Beijing shows no sign of easing its zero-COVID policy. With policies to boost demand taking effect, the decline in catering revenue has narrowed. The sector saw its revenues fall 1.5%YoY in July, narrowing by 2.5 pp from the previous month. Sales growth slowed for cosmetics, personal care, telecoms, automobiles, and oil products. In addition, sales continued to fall for clothing, furniture, and building materials. In the first seven months, China's total retail sales of consumer goods stood at 24.63 trillion yuan, down 0.2%YoY.
OPEC sees lower 2022 oil demand growth
Regarding to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report, oil demand to rise by 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd), or 3.2%, down 260,000 bpd from the previous forecast, citing the economic impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, high inflation, and efforts to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Although the forecast for the second half of the year was revised down in accordance with expectations of a resurgence of COVID-19 restrictions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. More importantly, however, OPEC calculated the difference between world oil demand for the current quarter and non-OPEC production at 28.27 million bpd, which is what OPEC itself would need to produce to keep the market in balance. OPEC also cut its 2022 global economic growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.5% and trimmed next year to 3.1%.
Dollar jumps on safety flow; yuan slips on rate cut
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.44, +1.0 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.36, -1.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.31-2.41. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 2.79, -5.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.51 Moving in a range of 35.44-35.57 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.44-35.64 today. The recent data from China weighs on recession worries, while the yuan weakened following a surprise key rate cut by PBoC. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.6% reach the highest intraday level to 106.3, consolidating near the middle of its range this month. The Euro eased 0.6% against the dollar to $1.0235, after beating a one-week low.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
