- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.60-35.85 this morning, supporting level of USDTHB is around 35.60 resistance level is around 35.75
- SET Index: 1,598.8 (+0.25%), 4 Aug 2022
- S&P 500 Index: 4,151.9 (-0.08%), 4 Aug 2022
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.51 (+0.37 bps), 4 Aug 2022
- US 10-year treasury yield: 2.68 (-5.00 bps), 4 Aug 2022
- US Jobless Claims rise slightly but labor market remains tight
- BoE raises rates by 50bps
- Japan's households increase spending for first time in 4 months
- Bond Yields Fall as Recession Looms
US Jobless Claims rise slightly but labor market remains tight The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 6 thousand to 260,000 the week that ended July 30th, slightly surpassing market expectations of 259,000. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims fell just slightly with notable decreases in Massachusetts (-6,934), and Ohio (-1,801), while claims rose significantly in Connecticut (+7,095). The 4-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, was at 254,750, an increase of 6 thousand from the previous week’s downwardly revised average of 248,750. This suggested some softening in the labor market, though overall conditions remain tight as represented by a sharp decline in layoffs announced by U.S.-based companies in July.
BoE raises rates by 50bps The Bank of England raised its main rate by 50bps to 1.75% during its August 2022 meeting, pushing borrowing costs to the highest level since 2009. It is the biggest rate increase since 1995. A near doubling in wholesale gas prices since May feeds through to retail energy prices and it will exacerbate the fall in real incomes for UK households. According to new BoE projections, Headline inflation is expected to rise to 13.3% in October and to remain elevated throughout 2023, before falling to the 2% target two years ahead. Looking at growth, UK economy is now projected to enter a recession in the fourth quarter which would last for five quarters.
Japan's households increase spending for first time in 4 months Japan households’ spending jumped 3.5% in June from a year earlier, posting its first year-on-year rise since January as households opened their purse strings for overnight stays, package tours and outdoor goods. For month-on-month basis, spending rose 1.5% from May, higher than a forecast of 0.2% in a Reuters poll, revealing that people spent less on fresh foods but more on transportation. Despite the greater-than-expected services spending figure, there was concern for the recovery momentum in coming month due to deteriorating purchasing power, a recent record surge of pandemic spread and gloomy global outlook. Meantime, a private sector survey this week showed growth in services sector activity stalling in July.
Bond Yields Fall as Recession Looms The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.51, +0.37 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.44, 0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.48-2.40. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 2.68, -5.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.15 Moving in a range of 35.60-35.85 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.60-35.75 today. The 10-year US Treasury note yield retreated to around the 2.7% level, approaching its lowest level since April, as investors continued to assess the risks of a recession in the world's largest economy. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers shifted investors' focus to further monetary tightening. The Fed action to tame down inflation brought the gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields to an extreme of almost 40 bps, viewed by many as a warning of economic contraction, hasn't been seen since 2000.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
