- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.72-36.86 this morning, supporting level of USDTHB is around 36.78 resistance level is around 37.00
- SET Index: 1,553.2 (-0.46%), 26 Jul 2022
- S&P 500 Index: 3,921.1 (-1.16%), 26 Jul 2022
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.58% (-3.11 bps), 26 Jul 2022
- US 10-year treasury yield: 2.81 (+0.00 bps), 26 Jul 2022
- IMF cuts global growth outlook, warns high inflation threatens recession
- US home prices are about to tumble as demand for new houses soften
- Germany on cusp of recession, says Ifo, as business sentiment sinks
- Euro fragile as Fed hike looms, gas risks weigh
IMF cuts global growth outlook, warns high inflation threatens recession Global real GDP growth will slow to 3.2% in 2022 from a forecast of 3.6% issued in April, as stated in IMF World Economic Outlook, adding that world GDP actually contracted in the second quarter due to downturns in China and Russia. For 2023 growth, it is forecasted to 2.9% from the April estimate of 3.6%, citing the impact of tighter monetary policy. The outlook has darkened significantly since April. The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one. The world's three largest economies, the United States, China and the euro area, are still stalling, with important consequences for the global outlook. The latest forecasts are however with high uncertainty. They are further subjected to downside risks from Russia's war in Ukraine, pushing energy and food prices higher and prompting further monetary policy tightening.
US home prices are about to tumble as demand for new houses soften Home-price growth nationwide downshifted further in May, posting a 19.7% annual gain, compared with a 20.6% increase in March and a 20.4% jump in April, the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report shows. The report’s 10-City Composite Index recorded an annual increase of 19%, down from 19.6% the prior month. Surging mortgage rates, exacerbated by Fed hikes this year, have begun to reverse a demand/supply imbalance. The ensuing drop in inventories, along with a scarcity of lots, materials and construction labor, has launched home prices into orbit. With rising mortgage rate and high inflation, homebuyers’ affordability has evaporated along with the signal of broader economic slowdown. The ongoing fall in home sales is also driving up the availability of housing relative to the number of buyers, meaning prices are likely to fall further in coming period.
Germany on cusp of recession, says Ifo, as business sentiment sinks The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany fell to 88.6 in July of 2022, the lowest in over two years and below market expectations of 90.2 as higher energy prices and the threat of a gas shortage are weighing on the economy that is on the cusp of a recession. Germany's gas network regulator warned that if gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline continued to be pumped at only 40%, the country would need to take additional measures to reach the 90% of storage capacity set as a target to avert winter rationing. The index of the current situation went down to 97.7 in July from 99.4 the prior month, while the gauge assessing companies' expectations decreased to 80.3 from 85.8. Sentiment deteriorated across all sectors: manufacturing (-7.1 vs 0 in June); services (0.9 vs 10.9); trade (-21.6 vs -14.7); and construction (-17 vs -9.5).
Euro fragile as Fed hike looms, gas risks weigh The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.58, -3.11 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.48, -5.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.45-2.53. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 2.81, +0.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.67 Moving in a range of 36.72-36.86 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.78-37.00 today. The euro fell about 1% to $1.0108 overnight, largest fall since July11, as a cut in Russian gas supply sent energy prices soaring, while the dollar held ground ahead of Fed decision.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
