- USDTHB : moving in the range 32.30 – 32.45 this morning, THB largely appreciated against USD as large foreign inflow into Thai bond and stock market. Though, Hawkish Fed may likely drive USDTHB up in medium term, supporting level of USDTHB is around 32.25, resistance level is around 32.85, 32.60
- SET Index: 1,684.7 (-0.86%), 14 Feb 2022
- S&P 500 Index: 4,401.7 (-0.38%), 14 Feb 2022
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) : 2.20% (-1.00 bps), 14 Feb 2022
- US 10-year treasury yield: 1.98 (+6.00bps), 14 Feb 2022
- U.S. short-term rate futures pare back odds of Fed inter-meeting move
- ECB's Lagarde repeats pledge for gradual policy shift
- China central bank injects $47.2 billion via medium-term loans, rate unchanged -statement
- Ukraine tensions, Fed hike talk drag on euro
U.S. short-term rate futures pare back odds of Fed inter-meeting move
U.S. short-term interest rate futures on Monday reflected a reduced chance of an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve before its two-day March policy meeting. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told Bloomberg last Thursday that he was open to the idea of an inter-meeting interest rate hike. He also doubled down on the need for 100 basis points or a full percentage point of policy-tightening by July 1, slightly faster than he suggested before. That implies at least one hike of a half-percentage point at one of those meetings. In early afternoon trading on Monday, futures on the fed funds rate using February contracts implied just a 3% chance of a rate hike of 25 basis points by the Fed before the March meeting. The debate on any move between meetings was made irrelevant by the Fed's release late on Friday of the schedule for its final month of asset purchases. Fed officials have said the U.S. central bank was unlikely to tighten rates before the conclusion of its bond buying program.
ECB's Lagarde repeats pledge for gradual policy shift
Any change in European Central Bank (ECB) policy will be gradual, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday, with markets expecting to increases to interest rates this year. In remarks nearly identical to her comments a week ago, Lagarde said that inflation risks are skewed to the upside but the ECB aims to maintain flexibility and policy decisions in March will depend on incoming data. "Any adjustment to our policy will be gradual," Lagarde told the European Parliament's plenary session in Strasbourg. "We need more than ever to maintain flexibility and optionality in the conduct of monetary policy".
China central bank injects $47.2 billion via medium-term loans, rate unchanged -statement
China's central bank injected funds through medium-term loans into the financial system on Tuesday, while keeping the interest rate unchanged. The PBOC said it was keeping the rate on 300 billion yuan ($47.19 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions steady at 2.85%, as widely expected. The 300 billion yuan injection exceeds the 200 billion in such loans maturing this week. In January, the PBOC unexpectedly cut the one-year MLF rate 10 basis points to 2.85% from 2.95% previously, alongside a 10 basis-point cut in the seven-day reverse repurchase agreement rate. The central bank also injected 10 billion yuan worth of seven-day reverse repos into the banking system, against 20 billion yuan in such loans maturing Tuesday.
Ukraine tensions, Fed hike talk drag on euro
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.20, -1.00 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.17, -2.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.15-2.20. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 1.98%, +6.00bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.53 Moving in a range from 32.30-32.45 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.25-32.40 today. Meantime, Tensions in eastern Europe weighed on the euro on Tuesday and pushed demand for the dollar and the safe-haven yen, while the greenback was also helped by debate about more aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Investing, CEIC
