- USDTHB : moving in the range 33.15 – 33.23 this morning, USDTHB at current level might be possible long entry. Hawkish Fed may likely continue to drive USDTHB in medium term, supporting level of USDTHB is around 33.15, 33.00, resistance level is around 33.30, 33.50
- SET Index: 1,661.8 (+0.78%), 1 Feb 2022
- S&P 500 Index: 4,546.5 (+0.68%), 1 Feb 2022
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) : 2.13% (+0.00 bps), 1 Feb 2022
- US 10-year treasury yield: 1.81 (+2.00bps), 1 Feb 2022
- Fed's Bullard sees three successive hikes to start policy tightening
- U.S. trade official says China failed to meet 'Phase 1' commitments
- BOJ under less pressure to shift yield target than market thinks – sources
- Dollar restrained by risk revival, spread of rate speculation
Fed's Bullard sees three successive hikes to start policy tightening
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard on Tuesday said he favors starting the turn to tighter U.S. monetary policy with successive rate increases at the Fed's March, May and June meetings, before assessing whether the pace of inflation requires more aggressive steps from there. But he pushed back against the idea of kicking off the tightening cycle with a half-percentage point hike in March, noting that markets have on their own started to push up borrowing costs already, and said that how high the Fed will ultimately need to lift rates remains an "open question." With investors currently anticipating five quarter point increases over the course of the year, Bullard said that "is not too bad a bet...A lot is going to depend on how inflation develops during the year." He is not optimistic about how much inflation will fall without the Fed's intervention. Global factors remained tilted towards higher prices.
U.S. trade official says China failed to meet 'Phase 1' commitments
China has failed to meet its commitments under a two-year "Phase 1" trade deal that expired at the end of 2021, and discussions are continuing with Beijing on the matter, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Sarah Bianchi said on Tuesday. In the deal signed by former President Donald Trump in January 2020, China pledged to increase purchases of U.S. farm and manufactured goods, energy and services by $200 billion above 2017 levels during 2020 and 2021. Through November, China had met only about 60% of that goal, according to trade data. Chinese customs data showed the country's 2021 trade surplus with the United States surged 25% to $396.6 billion after declining for two straight years, with exports to the United States up 27% and imports of American goods rising 33%.
BOJ under less pressure to shift yield target than market thinks – sources
A recent steady rise in long-term interest rates is unlikely to make the Bank of Japan tweak its yield target as it can use other tools to moderate any unwelcome rise in borrowing costs. Markets are rife with speculation that BOJ could shift its yield curve control (YCC) target from the current 10-year to the five-year bond yields, as JGB yields creep up in line with rising global interest rates. But with the 10-year yield still below the BOJ's implicit 0.25% cap, policymakers see little need to intervene forcefully to push down yields. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield hit 0.185% on Monday, the highest level since the start of the BOJ's negative rate policy six years ago, despite repeated assurances by the BOJ it was in no rush to tighten monetary policy.
Dollar restrained by risk revival, spread of rate speculation
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.13, +0.00 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.09, -2.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.07-2.12. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 1.81%, +2.00bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.19 Moving in a range from 33.15-33.23 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.18-33.28 today. Meantime, The dollar was carrying a couple of bruises on Wednesday as Federal Reserve officials played down the chance of a half point rate hike in March and a rally in global equity markets tarnished some of its safe haven allure.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Investing, CEIC
