- USDTHB : moving in the range 32.90 – 33.10 this morning, USDTHB at current level might be possible long entry. Hawkish Fed may likely continue to drive USDTHB in medium term, supporting level of USDTHB is around 32.85
- SET Index: 1,676.9 (+0.25%), 17 Jan 2022
- S&P 500 Index: 4,662.9 (+0.08%), 14 Jan 2022
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) : 2.14% +5.00 bps), 17 Jan 2022
- US 10-year treasury yield: 1.78 (+8.00bps), 14 Jan 2022
- Bank Indonesia to hold rates until second half of 2022 despite hawkish Fed
- China tops forecasts with 8.1% growth in 2021 but headwinds loom
- Bank of Japan to flag rising price pressure, maintain ultra-easy policy
- Dollar fails to catch a lift from higher yields, Bank of Japan in focus
Bank Indonesia to hold rates until second half of 2022 despite hawkish Fed
Indonesia's central bank will wait until the second half of the year before raising rates to nurture economic growth. Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo said at its December meeting, that normalization of policy will not necessarily follow moves by the Fed, and that interest rates would remain low until inflation rises. Unlike in the United States, where inflation is at a 40-year high, inflation in Southeast Asia's largest economy has been below the central bank's target range of 2%-4% for 19 months, giving it leeway to keep rates steady. "We still think BI will maintain the policy rate at 3.50% this month, according to Bank Permata. However, as Fed officials signal a rate hike this quarter, BI will be under pressure to kick off its own tightening cycle soon after to avert currency weakness and potential large capital outflows.
China tops forecasts with 8.1% growth in 2021 but headwinds loom
China's economy rebounded in 2021 with its best growth in a decade, helped by robust exports, but there are signs that momentum is slowing on weakening consumption and a property downturn, pointing to the need for more policy support. Growth in the fourth quarter hit a one-and-a-half-year low, government data showed on Monday shortly after the central bank moved to prop up the economy with a cut to a key lending rate for the first time since early 2020. The world's second-largest economy is struggling with a rapidly cooling property sector, as well as sporadic small-scale COVID-19 outbreaks that could deal a blow to its factories and supply chains. Several Chinese cities went on high alert ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday travel season, as the Omicron variant reached more areas including the capital Beijing. Still, the economy grew 8.1% last year.
Bank of Japan to flag rising price pressure, maintain ultra-easy policy
The Bank of Japan is expected to upgrade its inflation forecast on Tuesday and acknowledge budding signs of change in the country's deflationary mindset, as high global commodity costs prompt more firms to raise prices. But with inflation set to remain below its 2% target, the BOJ will likely stress its resolve to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. Compared with its assessment in October, the latest report may emphasise rising inflationary pressure and a shift in the balance of risk on the price outlook, the sources said. The central bank may also flag plans to conduct a thorough analysis on whether recent signs of quickening inflation would last. Some analysts expect core consumer inflation to exceed 1.5% around April.
Dollar fails to catch a lift from higher yields, Bank of Japan in focus
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.14, +5.00 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA, 9.8 years) was 2.14, +4.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.12-2.17. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 1.78%, +8.00bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.12 Moving in a range from 32.90-33.10 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.90-33.00 today. Meantime, The yen edged higher ahead of the outcome of a central bank policy meeting on Tuesday, while the dollar seemingly ignored U.S. Treasury yields hitting new near two-year highs on their return from a long weekend break.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Investing, CEIC
