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Tough U.S. jobs report shows Biden's rocky road to full economic recovery

10 พ.ค. 2564

President Joe Biden reacted on Friday to a disappointing April jobs report by saying the U.S. economy has a "long way to go" before recovering from its pandemic slump, and he urged Washington to do more to help the American people. U.S. job growth unexpectedly slowed last month, likely restrained by shortages of workers and raw materials. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 266,000 jobs, well below the nearly 1 million jobs economists expected. Biden and his team have said his $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package is helping to bring the economy back from its pandemic plummet, and they are pushing for another $4 trillion in new investments. Stock indexes still climbed to record highs despite the news, as fewer investors feared the Federal Reserve would reduce its massive stimulus program anytime soon, and bet Biden's investment plans would succeed.


Investors back off view that Fed could raise rates in late 2022
U.S. investors who had been betting the Fed would raise rates as early as the end of next year abruptly retreated from those positions on Friday after a disappointing April employment report and now see the earliest the Fed might tighten roughly two years away. The push back in expectations for when the Fed might start raising rates also means any reduction in the pace of its bond buying - which the Fed has said will begin first - may also occur later than some investors had been betting. Following April's meeting, investors were betting the Fed would raise rates in late 2022 or early 2023 and would offer clues about tapering its $120 million in monthly asset purchases as soon as June 2021. U.S. interest rate futures on Friday showed that traders pushed out expectations of a rate hike by roughly three months.


Europe's consumers face rising prices but the ECB is unfazed
Europe's consumers will feel the hit from price rises this year as companies seek to recoup revenues and cover pandemic-related costs. But for now, this is inflation the European Central Bank believes it can live with. Over the past year, the fallout from COVID-19 has contorted both the demand and supply sides of the global economy, creating bottlenecks in supply chains, havoc in freight markets and a rally in raw materials from corn to copper. However, for now, even after stripping out energy, euro zone producer prices in March recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, nearly double the gains seen in February. Moreover, Euro zone retail sales were up 2.7% month-on-month in March, a 12% surge from a year ago. This might be a perfect storm for price pressures to keep building as the region finally enters a recovery.


Dollar licks wounds after payrolls shock, focus turns to inflation
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.76, +1.00 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA, 10.5 years) was 1.82, +3.00 bps. LB29DA could be between 1.77-1.81. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 1.60%, +2.00bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.19 Moving in a range from 31.03-31.15 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.10-31.18 today. Meantime, The dollar languished near a more than two-month low versus major peers on Monday as investors continued to assess the implications for monetary policy of a disappointing U.S. employment report, ahead of inflation data this week.

Sources : Bloomberg, CNBC, Investing, CEIC