- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.37-34.42 this morning supportive level at 34.20 resistance level at 34.50
- SET Index: 1,125.2 (-3.2%), 4 Apr 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,062.3 (-0.2%), 7 Apr 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.871 (-1.77 bps), 4 Apr 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.15 (+14.0 bps), 7 Apr 2025
- US employment strengthens ahead of tariff impact
- Powell says the Fed is not rushing to cut rates at the May FOMC
- Trump threatens additional 50% levy on China
- Thai CPI dipped below the central bank's range in March
- The dollar bounces off lows after the NFP report and Powell's speech
US employment strengthens ahead of tariff impact
The headline NFP exceeded expectations with 228k jobs added in March, far surpassing the 135k consensus and showing a significant increase from the revised February figure of 117k. However, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%, despite forecasts for another 4.1% reading. This was paired with a slight increase in the participation rate to 62.5% from 62.4%. The BLS report highlighted a 4k decline in federal government jobs, a smaller drop than the 11k in February, suggesting that the DOGE layoffs may not yet be having as significant an effect. Regarding earnings, the metrics showed some softness.
Powell says the Fed is not rushing to cut rates at the May FOMC
Jerome Powell acknowledged that President Trump's tariffs are larger than expected, potentially leading to higher inflation and slower growth. While uncertain about the monetary policy response, Powell emphasized that the Fed is taking a patient approach and will wait for greater clarity before making adjustments. He also stated that most long-term inflation expectations remain stable. Regarding the May FOMC meeting, Powell indicated that the Fed is not in a rush to cut rates, preferring to observe the true impact of tariffs on the economy.
Trump threatens additional 50% levy on China
President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on China in response to their 34% tariff on US goods. He stated that if China does not remove these tariffs by April 8th, the US will impose the additional 50% tariff starting April 9th. Meanwhile, a report about a possible 90-day tariff pause was quickly denied by the White House as fake news. Economic Adviser Hassett mentioned Taiwan’s interest in tariff discussions, while Trade Adviser Navarro dismissed Vietnam’s tariff cuts, focusing instead on non-tariff issues and urging the EU to eliminate non-tariff barriers, including VAT.
Thai CPI dipped below the central bank's range in March
The headline CPI increased by 0.84% in March compared to the previous year, falling short of market expectations and outside the central bank's 1% to 3% target range for the first time in four months. The core CPI rose by 0.86% in March. For the first quarter, the headline inflation rate stood at 1.08%, slightly under the ministry's projection. As a result, the ministry plans to slightly lower its 2025 headline inflation forecast, which is currently between 0.3% and 1.3%, following last year's rate of 0.40%.
The dollar bounces off lows after the NFP report and Powell's speech
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.871, -1.77 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.87, -2.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.15, +14.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.13, moving in a range of 34.37 – 34.42 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.20 – 34.50 today. The dollar index regained much of last week’s losses, supported by the NFP report and Powell’s speech. On Monday, it continued to rise amid risk-off sentiment, higher US yields, and Trump’s firm tariff stance. G10 currencies were hit hard on Friday. Overnight, the euro weakened due to a stronger USD and tariff concerns, while the Japanese yen also weakened, pushing USD/JPY briefly to 148.00 amid rising US yields.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
