- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.37-34.42 this morning supportive level at 34.20 resistance level at 34.50
- SET Index: 1,172.7 (+0.4%), 2 Apr 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,671.0 (+0.7%), 2 Apr 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.941 (-3.42 bps), 2 Apr 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.20 (+3.0 bps), 2 Apr 2025
- Trump's tariffs impact all countries, with Asia and Europe hit hardest
- ADP data added 155,000 jobs, beating the forecast
- US factory orders rise solidly in February
- US dollar declines as markets evaluate Trump's statements
Trump's tariffs impact all countries, with Asia and Europe hit hardest
On Wednesday, Trump announced that he would impose a minimum 10% tariff on all exporters to the US and additional duties on approximately 60 countries with the largest trade imbalances with the US. This includes significantly higher tariffs on some of the US’s biggest trade partners, such as China, which will face a tariff of at least 54% on many goods, as well as the European Union and Vietnam. For Thailand, the reciprocal tariff rate has increased to 36%. The higher "reciprocal" rates target countries deemed the worst offenders by the Trump administration, based on tariffs and non-tariff barriers they impose on US goods. Standard import taxes begin Saturday, with higher duties starting April 9.
ADP data added 155,000 jobs, beating the forecast
US companies increased hiring last month, recovering from a sluggish February that was impacted by severe weather in certain regions. The ADP report showed a 155k rise in private payrolls for March, exceeding the 120k forecast and February's revised 84k (previously 77k). The growth was driven by professional and business services, financial activities, and manufacturing. On wages, the median annual pay increase for job stayers slowed to 4.6% from 4.7%, and for job changers, it dropped to 6.5% from 6.7% year-over-year. However, economists warned that the data may be more misleading than helpful, urging caution in relying on ADP's private payroll forecast due to its poor track record.
US factory orders rise solidly in February
US factory orders rose 0.6% in February to USD 594 billion, above the 0.5% expected, with orders excluding transportation up 0.4%. Shipments increased by 0.7% to USD 596.8 billion, while unfilled orders edged up 0.1%. Inventories grew by 0.1% to USD 864.9 billion, marking a fourth consecutive monthly increase.
US dollar declines as markets evaluate Trump's statements
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.941, -3.42 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.94, -3.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.20, +3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.17, moving in a range of 34.37 – 34.42 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.20 – 34.50 today. The dollar weakened before the tariff announcement but fluctuated after the US revealed baseline tariffs would be set at 10%, triggering a risk-on response across assets. However, markets shifted when Trump disclosed the actual reciprocal tariff rates. US data had little impact on the day, with ADP’s March report showing private businesses added 155k jobs, surpassing the expected 115k. Besides Trump’s announcement, the key risk event for the week remains the NFP report. The euro briefly rose above 1.0900 after reports that the EU was preparing emergency measures to shield its economy from Trump’s tariffs, but it gave back most of those gains as the EU faced a 20% reciprocal tariff. The Japanese yen experienced volatility but ultimately strengthened due to safe-haven demand following the announcement.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
