- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.70-34.73 this morning supportive level at 34.60 resistance level at 34.80
- SET Index: 1,340.3 (-1.05%), 14 Jan 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,842.9 (+0.11%), 14 Jan 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.405 (+1.87 bps), 14 Jan 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.78 (-1.0 bps), 14 Jan 2025
- USwholesale inflation unexpectedly slows because of a decline in food prices
- Trump team considers gradual tariff hikes under emergency powers
- BOJ Deputy Governor hints at the possibility of a rate hike next week
- China’s new loans decline for the first time in 13 years due to weak demand
- US Dollar cools off ahead of CPI release
US wholesale inflation unexpectedly slows because of a decline in food prices
US wholesale inflation unexpectedly slowed in December, aided by a decline in food prices and stable services costs, which may help ease concerns about persistent price pressures. The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% from the previous month, falling short of the 0.4% rise expected. A core PPI remained unchanged from November. On an annual basis, the overall PPI rose 3.3%, while the core measure gained 3.5%. Meanwhile, the components that impact the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed a mixed performance in December, with hospital care costs remaining unchanged and modest increases seen in physician services and portfolio management. In contrast, airfares saw their largest rise since March 2022.
Trump team considers gradual tariff hikes under emergency powers
Trump's incoming economic team is considering a gradual approach to raising tariffs, increasing them by 2% to 5% each month to boost negotiating leverage while minimizing inflation risks. The proposal, still in early stages, would use executive powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and has not yet been presented to Trump.
BOJ Deputy Governor hints at the possibility of a rate hike next week
BoJ Deputy Governor Himino highlighted the need to monitor economic, price, and financial trends, noting inflation expectations have risen to around 1.5%. He suggested a rate hike is likely if forecasts hold, but stressed the timing is crucial. The board will likely discuss a rate hike at next week's meeting, as it's unusual for real rates to stay negative after deflationary shocks. The decision will depend on meeting discussions.
China’s new loans decline for the first time in 13 years due to weak demand
Chinese banks issued fewer new loans in 2024, marking the first decline since 2011, highlighting weak financing demand amid ongoing deflation and a housing downturn. Banks provided 18.09 trillion yuan ($2.47 trillion) in new loans, surpassing economists' median estimate but falling short of 2023's 22.75 trillion yuan, the first annual drop in 13 years. Aggregate financing, a broader credit measure, increased by 32.26 trillion yuan, lower than the previous year's 35.59 trillion yuan, but above the median forecast of 31.56 trillion yuan.
US Dollar cools off ahead of CPI release
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.405, +1.87 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.39, +1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.78, -1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.69, moving in a range of 34.70 – 34.73 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.60 – 34.80 today. The dollar lost its early gains and weakened against other currencies following softer-than-expected PPI data. There was little new information from the Fed, and macro updates were sparse, leaving market participants focused on the upcoming US CPI data and several Fed speeches. The euro strengthened, benefiting from the weak US PPI data, and rose back to the 1.0300 level against the dollar. ECB's Holzmann made hawkish remarks, suggesting the ECB cannot cut rates too quickly and that core inflation remains closer to 3% than 2%. The Japanese yen weakened by the end of the day, but price action was volatile as traders remained uncertain about whether the BoJ will raise rates next week.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
