- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.61-34.64 this morning supportive level at 34.50 resistance level at 34.70
- SET Index: 1,377.5 (-1.54%), 19 Dec 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,867.1 (-0.09%), 19 Dec 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.268 (-0.38 bps), 19 Dec 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.57 (+7.0 bps), 19 Dec 2024
- US Q3 GDP revised to 3.1% on stronger consumer spending and exports
- BOE holds interest rates, signals gradual easing in 2025
- BOJ keeps rates steady, but proposal hints at upcoming hike
- Japan's core inflation accelerates, boosting BOJ rate-hike expectations
- Pound weakens as Bank of England keeps interest rates unchanged
US Q3 GDP revised to 3.1% on stronger consumer spending and exports
The US economy grew at a stronger pace in the third quarter than initially estimated, driven partly by higher consumer spending and exports. GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.1% in the third quarter, according to the third estimate, up from a previous forecast of 2.8%. Consumer spending increased to 3.7%, the highest since early 2023, and exports also grew more than anticipated, particularly in services. Other components like business investment and government spending were also revised up. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE price index, was slightly increased to 2.2%.
BOE holds interest rates, signals gradual easing in 2025
The Bank of England kept the base rate at 4.75%, with three members dissenting due to concerns over weak demand and a softening labor market. The majority warned that rising inflation and wage growth could lead to persistent inflation. The BOE also emphasized a "gradual approach" to rate cuts but could not commit to timing or size of reductions in 2025.
BOJ keeps rates steady, but proposal hints at upcoming hike
The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, holding off on its next move, though a dissenting vote for a rate hike signals growing momentum for a future increase. The board kept the benchmark rate at around 0.25%, as expected. Board member Naoki Tamura opposed this decision, suggesting a hike to 0.5%, citing alignment with economic and price expectations and rising inflation risks. Although his proposal was rejected, it indicates the board may be preparing for a rate hike. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of waiting longer for an interest rate increase, dampening expectations for a January move.
Japan's core inflation accelerates, boosting BOJ rate-hike expectations
Japan's November consumer price inflation slightly exceeded expectations, signaling a sustained rise that could prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in early 2025. National core CPI, excluding fresh food, grew 2.7% year-on-year, above the forecasted 2.6%. The core CPI, excluding both fresh food and energy, rose to 2.4% from 2.3%. Headline CPI surged to 2.9%, a four-month high. Strong private consumption and rising wages were key drivers of the inflation increase.
Pound weakens as Bank of England keeps interest rates unchanged
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.268, -0.38 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.23, +0.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.57, +7.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.61, moving in a range of 34.61 – 34.64 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50 – 34.70 today. The dollar remained mostly unchanged as volatility eased after the FOMC meeting. Its performance was mixed, with gains against the GBP and JPY, influenced by specific actions from the BoJ and BoE. Both the British pound and Japanese yen were weakened on Thursday due to central bank decisions. The yen's losses were amplified after the BoJ maintained its 0.25% rate with an 8-1 vote. Meanwhile, the euro saw some relief, with EUR/USD bouncing back from Wednesday’s drop to 1.0422, though it later retraced, dropping back below 1.04 as news flow remained light.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
