- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.71-34.76 this morning supportive level at 34.55 resistance level at 34.85
- SET Index: 1,440.5 (-1.52%), 21 Nov 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,948.7 (+0.53%), 21 Nov 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.445 (-0.10 bps), 21 Nov 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.43 (+2.00 bps), 21 Nov 2024
- Fed's Williams sees inflation cooling and interest rates falling further
- US Initial jobless claims fall to lowest point since April
- US existing home sales rebound in October
- Japan's October CPI topped expectations, with core inflation above the BOJ's target
- Dollar strengthens following claims data
Fed's Williams sees inflation cooling and interest rates falling further
In a November 15th interview with Barron’s, NY Fed President Williams discussed solid economic growth and a cooling labor market, noting that inflation has steadily decreased, but the Fed hasn't yet met its targets. He maintained a 2.25% inflation forecast for 2024 and expects wage inflation to continue easing. Williams saw no signs of recession and believes that interest rates may eventually return to neutral levels, though he’s unsure of the exact target. He views current monetary policy as restrictive and reaffirmed that the 2% inflation goal remains reasonable.
US Initial jobless claims fall to lowest point since April
US unemployment claims fell last week to 213,000, the lowest since April, signaling a strong job market, and below the expected 220,000. However, continuing claims rose to 1.91 million, a three-year high, due to a spike in Washington linked to a settled Boeing strike. Economists expect claims to stabilize near current levels after recent volatility from the strike and hurricanes. Despite some high-profile layoffs, broad job cuts remain rare. The four-week moving average dropped to 217,750, the lowest since May.
US existing home sales rebound in October
US Existing Home sales increased by 3.4% to 3.96 million in October, surpassing the forecast of 3.93 million. The months' supply of homes decreased slightly to 4.2 from 4.3, while the median sales price of existing homes rose 4.0% year-over-year to USD 407,200, marking the 16th consecutive month of price increases. According to the NAR Chief Economist, "The worst of the decline in home sales may be behind us, with rising inventory supporting more transactions. Job growth and continued economic expansion seem likely, driving increased housing demand." Looking ahead, he noted that "More inventory and increased home construction will help slow price growth in the coming year.
Japan's October CPI topped expectations, with core inflation above the BOJ's target
Japanese inflation in October slightly exceeded expectations, with core CPI rising 2.3%, above the 2.2% forecast, and remaining above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. A core inflation measure excluding energy and fresh food also rose to 2.3%. Headline CPI eased to 2.3% from 2.5%, reflecting lower energy prices and government subsidies, though the impact on overall inflation was limited.
Dollar strengthens following claims data
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.445, -0.10 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.42, -0.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.43, +2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.65, moving in a range of 34.71 – 34.76 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.55 – 34.85 today. The dollar strengthened, with its index holding around the 107.00 mark, continuing its recent upward trend, driven by rising short-term yields and growing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine war. A range of economic data was released, showing mixed results. The euro struggled, falling below 1.0500 against the dollar, while EU Consumer Confidence worsened more than anticipated, and ECB comments indicated potential interest rate cuts. The Japanese yen gained against the dollar due to escalating geopolitical tensions and recent inflation data from Japan.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC