- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.73-34.78 this morning supportive level at 34.50 resistance level at 34.80
- SET Index: 1,442.6 (-0.52%), 15 Nov 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,870.6 (-1.33%), 15 Nov 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.442 (+0.11 bps), 15 Nov 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.43 (+0.00 bps), 15 Nov 2024
- US retail sales rise, fueled by auto purchases, as holiday season begins
- Fed Collins stated that a December rate cut is "definitely an option, but not guaranteed"
- The UK economy experienced a steeper slowdown than expected last quarter
- China's stimulus drives growth in domestic consumption
- The dollar gains for the week as traders reassess rate cut expectations
US retail sales rise, fueled by auto purchases, as holiday season begins
US retail sales rose in October, driven by a surge in auto purchases, while other categories showed signs of momentum as the holiday season approached. Overall retail sales increased 0.4% month-over-month, beating the forecasted 0.3%, but falling short of the prior 0.8%, which had been revised up from 0.4%. Excluding autos, sales grew 0.1%, missing expectations of a 0.3% rise, although September's figure was revised to 1.0% from 0.5%. Retail control group sales unexpectedly fell 0.1%, while a 0.3% increase had been anticipated, though September’s data was revised up to 1.2% from 0.7%. Economists highlighted that the strong overall growth suggests sustained private consumption.
Fed Collins stated that a December rate cut is "definitely an option, but not guaranteed"
In interviews with the WSJ and Bloomberg, Fed President Collins said a December rate cut is possible but not guaranteed, depending on incoming data. She emphasized that current policy is restrictive, with no signs of new price pressures, and that the Fed aims to preserve a healthy economy while remaining flexible on future rate decisions.
The UK economy experienced a steeper slowdown than expected last quarter
The UK economy grew by just 0.1% in Q3, below the expected 0.2%, with a surprise 0.1% contraction in September. This slowdown was driven by concerns over the new Labour government's fiscal plans, which led to a drop in consumer and business confidence. In late October, Labour announced £40 billion in tax hikes, primarily affecting businesses. September saw flat growth in services and a 1% decline in manufacturing.
China's stimulus drives growth in domestic consumption
China entered the fourth quarter with a more balanced economy, as consumption growth nearly matched industrial output. Retail sales rose 4.8% year-on-year, surpassing the forecasted 3.8% and marking the strongest growth since February. Industrial production grew at a slightly slower pace than the previous month but remained above the level needed to meet the government's 2024 growth target of around 5%. Fixed-asset investment increased by 3.4% in the first 10 months, unchanged from the January-September period. However, property investment fell sharply by 10.3%.
The dollar gains for the week as traders reassess rate cut expectations
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.442, +0.11 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.42, -0.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.43, +0.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.89, moving in a range of 34.73 – 34.78 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50 – 34.80 today. The Dollar Index closed lower due to profit-taking but posted solid weekly gains, despite strong US data. The euro gained briefly against the dollar, peaking at 1.0592 before retreating. The Japanese yen outperformed, with USD/JPY falling to 153.87 from 164.74, boosted by profit-taking and slightly stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP data.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
